Expert+Judgment

=Expert Judgment (Research Methods) (GWU EMSE 216-8000)=

Index | Topics | Lectures | Course Work | Reference

Links in wikipedia, not a direct hit. [|Absolute probability judgement] talks about expert judgement but does not link to an expert judgment page.

Candidate summary: Approaches for "Elicitattion of Expert's Opinions" (Ahmed 2007, slide 1), Analyzing and Validating the Results


 * ** Background: **--> Summarize presentation <--
 * ** Appropriate uses of the method, including examples: **
 * "Military, engineering, risk assessment, management science, medicine, economics, and environmental studies
 * "'Experts’ opinions are used in two ways:
 * "Structuring the technical problem
 * "Providing estimates" (Ahmed 2007, slide 7)
 * ** Details of the method: **
 * Preparing for elicitattion
 * Direct, indirect or parametric elicitattion (Ahmed, slide 11)
 * Combining opionions using classic approach or Bayesian techniques (Ahmed, slide 12)
 * ** Strengths, limitations and problems associated with use of the method: **
 * Experts only know what they think they know. Consider Columbus's and Gallieo's peers
 * Cognitive Bias: (_____ 2011, sx) or "Heuristics Bias and Errors:" "Availability, Anchoring, Representativeness, Control" (Ahmed 2007, slide 9) (_ 2011, slide x, citing Cooke, 1991)
 * "Rational Consensus Reproducibility:" "Accountability, Empirical, Control, Neutrality, Fairness" Ahmed 2007, slide 10)
 * ** Potential EMSE Uses: **
 * Validating a model created using other methods.


 * Sources**
 * Ahmed, Mohamed (2007) Elicitation of Experts Opinions, presentation in EMSE 216. Fall 2007
 * b

Contributors: Sisson